National drops below 26% in new RNZ poll, Opportunity kingmaker

National has plunged below 26 percent in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, published about a month out from election day, while the Greens have surged and the Opportunity Party has once again been left holding the balance of power.

The poll puts National on 25.9 percent, down 3.2 points since August and its weakest result since the 2020 election. Labour has also lost ground, falling 1.4 points to 30.8 percent in its third consecutive decline.

Together, the two major parties now attract just 56.7 percent support — down from 61.3 percent in August and 64.9 percent at the 2023 election.

Greens surge, Opportunity clears the threshold

The Green Party has made the biggest gain, jumping 4.6 points to 14.8 percent, its strongest showing this term. New Zealand First has fallen 1.3 points to 10.6 percent, ACT has climbed 1.3 points to 9 percent, and Te Pāti Māori has dropped one point to 2 percent.

The Opportunity Party has edged up 0.2 points to 5.5 percent, clearing the 5 percent party-vote threshold for a second RNZ-Reid Research poll in a row — though it remains just half a percentage point above the line.

No outright winner in the numbers

If the results were replicated at the election, neither the existing coalition nor a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori combination would have a majority in a 120-seat Parliament. Opportunity's seven projected MPs could give either bloc the numbers to govern, although National has previously ruled out working with the party.

How the parties reacted

National's campaign chair Simeon Brown acknowledged little more than that the election would be tight. "I think what this poll overall shows is that the election is going to be very close, and that there's a lot of work to do between now and the 7th of November," he said.

The poll also showed more than half of respondents think the country is heading in the wrong direction under the current government. Christopher Luxon's preferred prime minister rating has fallen to 17.1 percent, again trailing Labour leader Chris Hipkins.

Reid Research surveyed 1000 eligible voters online between September 24 and October 1, 2026, with a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. New Zealanders go to the polls on 7 November.

This article is republished from RNZ under its Creative Commons licence CC BY-ND 4.0. The original story was written by Craig McCulloch and first appeared on rnz.co.nz on 6 October 2026.